Last Week Recap

Forex

• USD strength persisted after the release of stronger‑than‑expected US CPI and payroll data, pushing the USD/JPY back above 155.00.
• The EUR/USD slipped to the 1.1580‑1.1600 range as the Euro showed limited reaction to mixed German industrial data.
• GBP/USD rallied to around 1.3400 after the UK’s consumer confidence surprise, but faced resistance near the 1.3450 level.

Crypto

• Bitcoin (BTC/USD) closed the week near $77,600, a modest 0.6% gain, while Ethereum (ETH/USD) hovered around $4,950.
• Bitcoin dominance climbed above 60%, indicating a shift of capital from altcoins to the flagship asset.
• Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $201.9 million on Aug. 28, ending a nine‑day inflow streak.

Commodities

• Gold (XAU/USD) broke a three‑month peak, climbing above $4,600 per ounce, driven by persistent inflation fears and a weaker euro.
• Crude oil steadied near $84.20 as OPEC+ signaled a cautious supply‑side approach, while global demand data remained mixed.

This Week’s Key Events & Data Releases

• Monday: U.S. Non‑Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate (10 a.m. ET).
• Tuesday: Eurozone CPI (8 a.m. CET) and ECB Governor speech.
• Wednesday: UK Retail Sales and BoE Governor commentary.
• Thursday: Australian CPI and Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes.
• Friday: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report and U.S. Existing Home Sales.

These releases will dictate short‑term volatility, especially for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY. Traders should watch for surprise deviations that could trigger news‑driven breakouts.

Major Currency Pairs Outlook

• EUR/USD: Expect the pair to test the 1.1580 support. A breach could open the path to 1.1500, while a bounce may target the 1.1700 resistance. Technical analysis shows a descending channel with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement around 1.1625.
• GBP/USD: The pound is likely to hover between 1.3400‑1.3450. A clean break above 1.3450 could attract risk‑on flows, while a fallback to 1.3300 would signal a corrective move.
• USD/JPY: With the yen under pressure, the pair may test 155.50. A move above 156.00 would reinforce the USD’s bullish stance; a reversal below 154.00 could indicate a short‑term corrective rally in the yen.

Crypto Levels

• BTC/USD: Resistance sits at $78,000, with the next major hurdle at $80,500. Support is anchored around $75,000. On‑chain metrics show a healthy net inflow into exchange wallets, suggesting potential short‑term upside.
• ETH/USD: The token aims for $5,050 resistance, while $4,800 marks a key support zone. A breakout above $5,050 could reignite interest in DeFi‑related projects.

Gold Price Analysis

The gold price surge above $4,600 reflects a confluence of factors:

• Inflation data: U.S. CPI remained above the Fed’s 2% target, keeping real yields low.
• Currency dynamics: A weaker euro and a softening yen have added safe‑haven demand.
• Geopolitical risk: Ongoing tensions in Eastern Europe continue to support gold as a hedge.

Technical outlook:

• Short‑term: The 4‑hour chart shows a bullish flag pattern, with the upper trendline at $4,620 and the lower at $4,540.
• Medium‑term: A 50‑day moving average sits at $4,560, acting as dynamic support. A breach below $4,540 could open a retracement toward $4,460.
• Key levels:
  • Resistance: $4,650, $4,700, $4,750
  • Support: $4,540, $4,460, $4,400

Traders should incorporate risk management techniques—such as volatility‑based stop‑losses—to protect positions amid potential macro‑driven swings.

Final Analysis

Overall, the week ahead is shaped by high‑impact macro data and lingering inflation concerns. Forex traders should prioritize the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY pairs, using technical analysis to pinpoint entry zones while respecting tight stop‑losses. Crypto traders can focus on the $78k‑$80.5k range for Bitcoin and the $5,050 level for Ethereum, watching on‑chain flows for early signals.

For those operating a funded account or participating in a Global4EX Challenge, the upcoming data releases present opportunities to demonstrate disciplined risk management and a robust trading strategy. Whether you’re navigating the prop firm evaluation process—via a 1‑Phase or 2‑Phase assessment—or leveraging the HFT Instant product for rapid execution, aligning your trade plan with the macro narrative will be crucial.

Stay alert to the inflation dynamics that continue to drive both forex trading and gold price movements, and remember that the best‑performing traders combine solid fundamentals with precise technical entries. Good luck, and may your positions respect your risk limits as you chase the week’s opportunities.

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Published by the Global4EX Team. Learn more at global4ex.com