Weekly Market Kickoff – What Happened Last Week

Forex – The US dollar kept its momentum after the Fed’s latest policy statement, posting modest gains against most major currencies. EUR/USD slipped back toward the 1.0950‑1.1000 range, while GBP/USD hovered around 1.2600 after the British pound digested weaker UK inflation data. USD/JPY rallied to 147.80, finding support near the 147.00 level as Japanese officials hinted at a possible rate hike later in the month.

Crypto – Bitcoin (BTC) rallied to $83,588, a 0.9% rise, after the market absorbed the news that the United States will not pursue a direct strike on Iran. Ethereum (ETH) steadied near $2,542, down 2.5% on the day but still above the $2,500 psychological barrier. On‑chain activity showed a modest increase in net inflows to exchanges, suggesting short‑term traders are testing resistance levels.

Commodities – Gold (XAU/USD) continued its upward trajectory, breaking above $4,226 and testing the $4,250 resistance. Brent crude slipped to $84.30 while WTI hovered around $80.10, both reacting to weaker global oil demand forecasts and a stronger dollar.

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Key Events and Data Releases to Watch This Week

Traders should keep an eye on central‑bank speeches (Fed, ECB, BoE) for tone clues that often precede price moves.

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Major Currency Pairs Outlook

EUR/USD

• Current price: 1.0985
• Key resistance: 1.1050 (previous weekly high) and 1.1100 (psychological barrier)
• Support levels: 1.0920 (mid‑week low) and 1.0875 (monthly swing low)
• Technical outlook: The pair is testing a descending channel. A break above 1.1050 could reopen the path to 1.1150, while a dip below 1.0920 may trigger a retest of 1.0800.
• Fundamental drivers: Continued US CPI pressure and a dovish ECB stance keep the euro under pressure.

GBP/USD

• Current price: 1.2620
• Resistance: 1.2700 (round number) and 1.2800 (Q2 high)
• Support: 1.2500 (previous low) and 1.2400 (April swing low)
• Technical outlook: GBP/USD is forming a bullish flag after a recent pullback. A clean break above 1.2700 would signal a short‑term rally toward 1.2850. Conversely, a failure at 1.2500 could see the pair test 1.2300.
• Fundamental drivers: BoE policy hints and UK inflation data are the main catalysts.

USD/JPY

• Current price: 147.80
• Resistance: 148.50 (weekly high) and 150.00 (psychological level)
• Support: 147.00 (previous low) and 145.50 (monthly support)
• Technical outlook: The pair is respecting a rising wedge. A move above 148.50 would likely break the wedge and push toward 150.00. A downside break below 147.00 could reopen the 145‑145.50 corridor.
• Fundamental drivers: Japanese CPI data and possible BOJ rate adjustments.

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Key Crypto Levels

BTC/USD

• Current price: $83,588
• Resistance: $84,500 (round number) and $86,000 (previous high)
• Support: $82,000 (recent low) and $80,500 (30‑day swing low)
• Technical notes: BTC is respecting a bullish ascending triangle. A close above $84,500 would likely trigger a rapid move toward $86,000, while a break below $82,000 could see the price test $80,500.

ETH/USD

• Current price: $2,542
• Resistance: $2,600 (psychological) and $2,660 (recent high)
• Support: $2,470 (weekly low) and $2,400 (monthly support)
• Technical notes: ETH is consolidating within a symmetric triangle. A decisive close above $2,600 could accelerate the rally, whereas a breach of $2,470 may open the path to $2,400.

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Trading Strategy & Risk Management Tips

• Technical analysis: Use multi‑time‑frame confirmation. For example, combine the daily 50‑EMA with the weekly trend to filter false breakouts on EUR/USD and BTC/USD.
• Risk management: Keep position size below 2% of account equity per trade. For prop‑firm traders, the Global4EX Challenge and its 1‑Phase or 2‑Phase evaluations enforce strict drawdown limits; adhering to a 1‑2% risk rule aligns with those constraints.
• Prop‑firm edge: If you are managing a Global4EX funded account, consider using the HFT Instant product for ultra‑fast order execution when trading high‑volatility events like the US Non‑Farm Payrolls release.
• Diversification: Pair a core forex position (e.g., long GBP/USD) with a crypto hedge (short BTC/USD) to balance risk across asset classes.

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Final Analysis

The market narrative for the coming week is clear: a strong US dollar driven by inflation data, a cautious euro and pound awaiting central‑bank guidance, and a volatile crypto landscape shaped by ETF developments and on‑chain flows. Gold remains a safe‑haven favorite as the dollar climbs, while oil prices may wobble on OPEC decisions.

For traders—whether you’re navigating a retail portfolio or a Global4EX funded account—the focus should be on high‑probability setups that respect key support‑resistance zones, while maintaining disciplined risk parameters. Keep your eyes on the data calendar, watch for breakout confirmations on EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, BTC/USD and ETH/USD, and let the technical framework guide your entries and exits.

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Published by the Global4EX Team. Learn more at global4ex.com