Weekly Market Recap

Last week saw a mixed bag of price action across the three core asset classes we track. Forex pairs nudged higher on a softer U.S. dollar, while crypto markets rallied on renewed institutional interest. Gold (XAU/USD) continued its upward trajectory, driven by persistent inflation concerns and dovish central bank signals. Below is a quick snapshot of the most notable moves:

• EUR/USD slipped back to 1.1260 on Friday, a modest 0.16% gain after a brief rebound.
• GBP/USD held near 1.2725, buoyed by UK inflation data that came in slightly below expectations.
• USD/JPY hovered around 157.15, edging up as the yen remained under pressure from the widening yield differential.
• BTC/USD surged 6.5% over the past week, stabilising near $44,900 after a strong bounce from its January lows.
• ETH/USD mirrored Bitcoin’s rally, trading around $1,950 after finding support at the $1,800 level.
• Gold (XAU/USD) broke the $2,050 mark, reflecting a 2.3% weekly gain driven by higher real yields and safe‑haven demand.

Forex Review

What Drove the Market?

The dollar’s recent softness stemmed from a combination of lower‑than‑expected U.S. non‑farm payrolls (NFP) data and a modest dip in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). With the Federal Reserve signalling a more cautious rate‑hike path, risk‑on sentiment returned, allowing the euro and pound to claw back some lost ground. Meanwhile, the yen remained vulnerable as Japan’s monetary policy stays ultra‑accommodative.

Technical Outlook

• EUR/USD: The pair is testing the 1.1260 resistance. A break above this level could reopen the 1.1320–1.1350 zone, while a fall back below 1.1200 would re‑ignite a bearish move toward 1.1150.
• GBP/USD: The pair sits in a tight range between 1.2700 and 1.2750. A decisive close above 1.2750 could trigger a move toward 1.2850, whereas a break under 1.2700 may see it retest 1.2600.
• USD/JPY: The yen is perched near 157.15, with the 158.00 level acting as a key resistance. A sustained rally above 158.00 could push the pair toward 160.00, while a dip below 156.00 would re‑establish a short‑term support.

Crypto Review

Market Drivers

Institutional allocations to digital assets have accelerated, with several large funds announcing new crypto‑focused mandates. The recent StoneX Digital Asset Weekly Commentary highlighted a 6.5% weekly rally in Bitcoin, driven by fresh inflows into spot ETFs and a resurgence in on‑chain activity. Ethereum’s price action remains closely tied to the upcoming network upgrades and the broader DeFi recovery.

Technical Levels

• BTC/USD: The price is consolidating above the $44,500 – $45,500 range. A break above $45,500 could open the path to $48,000, while a move below $44,000 would test the $42,000 support.
• ETH/USD: Holding near $1,950, ETH is respecting the $1,900 support line. A bounce above $2,000 would reaffirm the bullish momentum, whereas a drop below $1,880 could see it slide toward $1,800.

Commodities Spotlight – Gold Price Forecast 2026

Macro Drivers

Gold’s rally is anchored by three primary macro themes:

1. Persistently high inflation – Core CPI remains above the Fed’s 2% target in many major economies, keeping real yields low.
2. Central bank dovishness – The Federal Reserve, ECB, and BoJ have all hinted at a slower pace of tightening, which traditionally supports gold as a safe‑haven.
3. Geopolitical uncertainty – Ongoing tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East continue to drive demand for non‑correlated assets.

Technical Outlook for XAU/USD

• Current price: $2,050 per ounce.
• Key resistance: $2,100 – $2,150. A decisive close above $2,100 could see the metal target the $2,200 level.
• Support: $1,990 – $1,970. A break below $1,990 would likely test the $1,950 area, a historically strong support zone.

Key Events and Data Releases This Week

Currency Pair Outlook

• EUR/USD: Expect a range‑bound trade this week, with the 1.1260–1.1320 band acting as the primary battleground. Traders can look for technical analysis setups such as bullish engulfing candles near support or bearish pin bars at resistance.
• GBP/USD: The pair may see moderate upside if the BoE remains dovish. Watch for a break above 1.2750 as a signal for a longer‑term rally toward 1.2850.
• USD/JPY: With the yen under pressure, the pair could test 158.00. A clear break above this level would reinforce a bullish bias, while a dip below 156.00 could trigger a short‑term correction.

Crypto Levels Outlook

• BTC/USD: Maintain a bullish bias above $44,500. Key resistance at $45,500, with the next target at $48,000. Stop‑losses should be placed just below $44,000 to manage risk.
• ETH/USD: Hold above $1,950 for a continued rally. Resistance at $2,000, support at $1,880. Traders should monitor on‑chain metrics like active addresses for confirmation.

Final Analysis

Overall, the market landscape this week is shaped by inflation data and central‑bank messaging. A softer U.S. dollar will likely keep EUR/USD and GBP/USD in a modest uptrend, while USD/JPY may test higher highs if the yen fails to recover. In the crypto arena, Bitcoin’s momentum appears intact, but volatility remains elevated—making risk management and technical analysis essential for both retail traders and those managing a Global4EX funded account.

Gold continues to benefit from the macro backdrop, and traders should watch the $2,100 resistance as a potential breakout point. For those pursuing a prop‑firm career, the Global4EX Challenge—whether the 1‑Phase or 2‑Phase evaluation—offers a low‑drawdown environment to apply these insights while honing a disciplined trading strategy.

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Published by the Global4EX Team. Learn more at global4ex.com