Overview

Welcome to the Weekly Market Kickoff for the week of March 25‑29, 2026. We’ll unpack what moved markets last week across forex trading, crypto trading, and commodities, then lay out the data calendar and technical levels that will shape price action. Whether you manage a retail portfolio or a Global4EX funded account, understanding the macro backdrop and chart patterns is essential for a disciplined trading strategy.

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1. Last Week Recap – Forex, Crypto & Commodities

Forex

• EUR/USD slipped below the 1.1500 psychological barrier, closing the week around 1.1482 after a surprise U.S. CPI reading that hinted at softer inflation. The pair tested a fresh multi‑week low near 1.1454, sparking short‑term bearish sentiment.
• GBP/USD rallied modestly, hovering near 1.2850, as UK retail sales beat expectations and the Bank of England signaled a cautious stance on rate hikes.
• USD/JPY continued its upward drift, breaking the 140.00 level for the first time in six months, driven by a stronger dollar and a dovish tone from the Bank of Japan.

Crypto

• Bitcoin (BTC/USD) hovered around $73,900, after a volatile session that saw the price bounce off the $74,500 resistance before retreating. On‑chain metrics showed a modest increase in HODLer activity, suggesting a potential short‑term accumulation phase.
• Ethereum (ETH/USD) settled near $2,150, with the network’s EIP‑4844 upgrade drawing renewed interest from institutional players. The coin found support at the $2,100 level, a key technical pivot point.

Commodities

• Gold (XAU/USD) rallied to $4,620 amid safe‑haven buying, while the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) weakened, reinforcing the inverse gold‑dollar relationship.
• Crude Oil (WTI) slipped back below $78, as concerns over global demand resurfaced following weaker Chinese manufacturing data.

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2. Key Events & Data Releases to Watch This Week

In the crypto space, watch for the Bitcoin ETF launch updates from the SEC on Thursday, which could trigger a fresh rally if approved. Ethereum’s Shanghai upgrade is slated for early next week, offering a potential catalyst for ETH/USD.

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3. Major Currency Pairs Outlook

EUR/USD

• Technical outlook: The pair is in a descending channel with the 1.1500 level acting as a strong resistance. A break above this level could open a move toward the 1.1600 psychological zone. Conversely, a retest of the 1.1450 support could see the price slide to 1.1350.
• Fundamental drivers: Eurozone CPI is expected to be 2.2% YoY, slightly above the market consensus, which may provide a modest upside. Keep an eye on the ECB’s forward guidance for any hints of rate changes.

GBP/USD

• Technical outlook: GBP/USD is testing a bullish flag formation. The flag’s upper boundary sits near 1.2900, while the lower boundary is around 1.2800. A breakout to the upside could target 1.3000, whereas a failure could retest the 1.2700 support.
• Fundamental drivers: Strong UK retail sales and a potential BoE rate hike are bullish for the pound. However, any dovish comments could quickly reverse the rally.

USD/JPY

• Technical outlook: The pair is climbing the 135‑140 trend line. The 140.00 level is now a key resistance; a decisive close above it could push USD/JPY toward 145.00. A pull‑back to the 136.50 support zone is also plausible if risk sentiment cools.
• Fundamental drivers: The upcoming U.S. Core PCE data and any signs of a Fed rate hike will be the primary catalysts. The Bank of Japan’s continued ultra‑loose policy keeps the yen vulnerable to dollar strength.

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4. Crypto Levels to Watch

BTC/USD

• Resistance: $74,500 and $75,000 (round numbers). A clean break above $75,000 could trigger a $78,000 rally, aligning with the 2026 bullish trend channel.
• Support: $73,000 and $71,500. If Bitcoin falls below $71,500, the next major support lies near $68,000, a historically strong demand zone.

ETH/USD

• Resistance: $2,200 and $2,250. A breach of $2,250 would open the path to $2,350, coinciding with the Ethereum 2026 price target set by several analysts.
• Support: $2,100 and $2,050. A dip below $2,050 could see the price test the $1,950 psychological level.

On‑chain signals such as increasing HODLer balance for BTC and rising staking participation for ETH suggest a short‑term accumulation phase, which traders can leverage with risk‑managed breakout strategies.

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5. Commodities Snapshot

• Gold (XAU/USD): The metal is testing the $4,650 resistance. A breakout could push gold toward the $4,700‑$4,750 range, while a pull‑back to $4,560 would keep the bullish bias intact.
• Crude Oil (WTI): Expect volatility around the $78‑$80 zone. Ongoing concerns about Chinese demand and OPEC‑plus production cuts will dictate price swings.

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6. Trading Strategy Tips for the Week

1. Combine Technical and Fundamental Analysis – Use the upcoming data releases as entry triggers. For example, a Eurozone CPI surprise could be the catalyst for a long EUR/USD trade if the price breaks above 1.1500 on strong volume.
2. Risk Management – Keep your drawdown below 2% per trade, especially when trading volatile crypto pairs like BTC/USD. This aligns with the low drawdown standards of the best prop firm 2026 and helps protect a funded account.
3. Leverage Prop‑Firm Tools – If you’re evaluating a Global4EX Challenge, consider the 1‑Phase evaluation for a quick path to funding, or the HFT Instant for high‑frequency traders seeking instant funding prop firm benefits.
4. Session Overlap Plays – The London‑New York overlap remains the sweet spot for liquidity. Look for EUR/USD and GBP/USD breakouts during the overlap, as order flow tends to amplify price moves.
5. Use Stop‑Losses Based on Volatility – Apply an ATR‑driven stop‑loss to account for the higher volatility in crypto markets. This technique is highlighted in many prop firm comparison guides and works well for both forex and crypto pairs.

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7. Final Thoughts

The week ahead promises a data‑driven environment, with key inflation and employment figures poised to shape the direction of major currency pairs. In crypto, the Bitcoin ETF decision and Ethereum’s network upgrades could provide the next wave of momentum. Traders should stay disciplined, blend technical analysis with fundamental insights, and keep risk management front‑and‑center. Whether you’re navigating the top prop firm for beginners or scaling a cheapest prop firm challenge, the tools and strategies outlined above will help you capture opportunities while protecting your capital.

Stay alert, stay prepared, and may your trades be profitable!

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Published by the Global4EX Team. Learn more at global4ex.com